I started taking a few courses in Psychology and one of the things that I found interesting was this idea of “the third-variable problem.” You see, there is an issue researchers come across when they are trying to figure out how strongly things connect or correlate with each other.
Let’s say that someone did a study and discovered data showing that high school students who studied more got better marks. Well, there you go, that explains everything and no young person will see the sun again, only the lamp light of studying…
However, there is a problem. Yes, studying and high marks -those two things (variables)- may be connected, but how do you know that one is causing the other? Many other factors could be impacting the consequences. You see, connection (correlation) does not necessarily mean causation. There may be another influencing reason (that we don’t know about) that is causing both events to happen. Furthermore, making an unproven assumption of causation may point an individual in the wrong direction…
What am I getting at? Men sometimes take action based on their perceived correlations. We tend to think about things in this way; If I work harder, I will have happier life. If I do this, my marriage will be better. If have an affair it will make me feel more satisfied…. But what happens instead? We don’t feel happier, we don’t have a better marriage, and we don’t feel more satisfied. Many of our frustrations as men may flow from the fact that the correlations we establish in our minds don’t add up. We expend energy in our actions like hamster wheels going nowhere…
So, what are we supposed to do? What do researchers do? They examine one of the variables and begin to manipulate and experiment on it, and then measured its impact on the other variable. For example, going back to our opening point (studying & marks), to test for causation, they might have three groups of students: Group A would study for half the time, Group B would study for a little time and Group C would study a lot. There would be some fancy calculations, but all in all, they would eventually measure to see how each student group’s grades were affected.
Now don’t misunderstand me, I don’t feel that manipulating and experimenting with our lives will be the answer. Also, even if we find the right “independent” variable to mess around with, I think we just don’t possess enough control of our environment (and ourselves) to conduct these investigations.
What is the solution to the problem? I believe that it’s not about finding variables, but maybe it’s more about finding faith. God is sovereign and corners the market of time, space, knowledge and experience. We need to look to him to evaluate the variables in our lives and trust him as he speaks through the Bible, counsellors, and often times the people closest to us. Then we can focus on the actions that will bring us to the desired outcomes.
If things aren’t adding up in your life, this year, it might be the time to take a pause and let God reveal to you the results of his findings. It’s 2022, and if you are doing the same thing over and over and getting the same result -which is a recipe for insanity- why not change the ingredients? Why not turn our attention towards causation and not correlation? Why not have faith in someone who knows how all the variables connect to the causes of our lives.
Call to Action
What do you think? What faulty correlations have you formed in your mind? What actions are you engaged in that are not resulting in the outcomes that you predict? We would love to hear your comments, stories and encouragement.
The Genesis Man Project 